The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam has made headlines for the past seven years; Between the steady water scarcity in Egypt and the electricity crisis in Ethiopia, the dam triggered the crisis. Cairo adheres to the historical and human right of the Egyptians to the waters of the Blue Nile, which feeds the Nile with 80% of its waters, while the Ethiopian position remains unchanged, adhering to what it calls “rejection of colonial agreements”, in a stubbornness that is not hidden from anyone, at the regional and international levels.
Cairo signed the “Declaration of Principles” with Sudan and Ethiopia in 2015, while the Egyptian goodwill in resolving the crisis resulting from the past five decades did not bear fruit, following Ethiopia’s attempts to portray the technical dispute over the filling rules into a historical conflict between brown Africa on the one hand and the countries of the north of the continent on the other. At the same time, Egypt adheres to a "rational" administration in the file of the stalled negotiations. In the following report, Al-Masry Al-Youm reviews the consequences of the crisis and its available solutions.
Where is the crisis?
According to the latest official United Nations census, Egypt suffers from a steady water scarcity; The per capita share declined from 2,190 cubic meters in 1996 to 570 in 2017, which will reach 500 in 2025. On the other hand, more than 60% of the population of Ethiopia does not have access to electricity, while the need for it is growing by 32% annually; Therefore, Addis Ababa aspires to generate electricity to compensate for the lack of energy and export the surplus to neighboring countries; The dam is the largest hydroelectric power plant in Africa and the seventh largest in the world, with a planned capacity of 6.45 gigawatts.
The Nile River constitutes 95% of Egypt's fresh water resources, 80% of which are used in agricultural irrigation; Therefore, what Ethiopia really sees as a project that Egypt considers a threat to its existence and national security, especially in light of the intransigence of Abi Ahmed’s government in the timing of filling, as the repercussions of completing the construction of the dam in 6 years directly threaten Egyptian water and food security, and reduce the energy produced from the Aswan Dam 30 %, according to a report by the German Policy and Science Foundation last year.
50 years of "The Dialogue of the trshan"
Mohamed Nasr Allam, the former Minister of Irrigation, said that the Ethiopian dam crisis was the result of 50 years of a “deaf dialogue” between the Egyptian and Ethiopian sides. Addis Ababa asked former President Gamal Abdel Nasser to approve the plan to build a number of facilities on the outskirts of the Blue Nile, but he categorically refused, based on the 1902 agreement that prevents Ethiopia from building any construction on the Blue Nile, the Sibat River, and Lake Tana.
The former Minister of Irrigation explained in exclusive statements to Al-Masry Al-Youm, Ethiopia's intransigence and the development of its scheme over the past five decades, pointing out that between 1959 and 1963 Addis Ababa sent a delegation to the United States and planned to build 33 facilities on the outskirts of the Blue Nile, The total capacities of all of them were 64 billion cubic metres, including the border dam, which is supposed to build the current Renaissance Dam in its same location, with a capacity of only 9 billion cubic metres, stressing that Ethiopia has been moving forward with building subsidiary dams and developing a plan to build the “border dam” or the main dam until it submitted It is planned to construct it with a capacity of 14.5 billion cubic meters with three others with a total capacity of 150 billion cubic meters in 2005.
Allam continued: In 2008, Egypt and Sudan agreed to one of the four dams (the Border Dam) with a capacity of 14.5 billion and sent the approval to the World Bank, but after I was appointed as Minister of Irrigation, in 2009 a committee was formed with the participation of researchers from the Water Research Center and the College of Engineering, which ended in 2010 The dams are harmful to Egypt and their construction cannot be approved.”
The former Minister of Irrigation explained that in 2010, Egypt sent a delegation that roamed the world, rejecting the Ethiopian plan and preventing its financing, but Ethiopia took advantage of the Egyptian situation in the wake of the January revolution and doubled the capacity of the border dam, which began with a capacity of 9 billion, and Egypt rejected it with a capacity of 14.5 billion cubic meters to 74 billion in The current capacity, and even started the work of its construction without the approval of the downstream countries.
Allam stresses, in the same context, that Egypt's recognition of Ethiopia's right to development is not abused, and the Ethiopian intransigence does not negate that all alternatives are still available to Egypt, including resorting to a military solution, explaining that no one denies that the "Declaration of Principles" " Pros and cons; It is not clear to the extent that it preserves Egypt's rights, while it is the only agreement that brought together the two parties for more than 50 years; Through it, Ethiopia can be forced to reformulate the filling and operating procedures in a way that does not contradict the interests of Egypt and Sudan, and some of its provisions can be used as a strong argument against Ethiopian intransigence.
The former Minister of Irrigation, Mohamed Nasr Allam, confirms that the Egyptian negotiations in the Renaissance Dam crisis have returned to the right track in the aftermath of 2016; The mistakes were absent and they were characterized by seriousness coupled with experience and skill, unlike previous years, pointing to the comprehensive development in the level of negotiation, whether at the bilateral level with Ethiopia or at the level of rational escalation through resorting to international institutions.
Allam praises the Egyptian negotiation process, saying that he is not blamed, but can be described as "the rational one." Egypt resorted to the United Nations General Assembly and pushed for American intervention, and the entry of international and regional organizations into the negotiating line, such as the Arab League and the African Union, leading to an escalation of the Security Council.
Egypt is making tangible progress in the negotiations
For his part, Nasser Zuhair, a researcher specializing in international relations and political economy at the Geneva Center for Political and Diplomatic Studies, believes that Egypt has shown "confidence" in Ethiopia, while the latter exploited Cairo and Khartoum's recognition of its right to development to infringe on the rights of the downstream countries, explaining that the course of the Egyptian diplomatic move in The last two years have been positive in general, whether in terms of the crisis of the Renaissance Dam negotiations, or Egypt's breaking of the monopoly of its relations with the West over the United States; It now enjoys good relations with Germany, Russia and France, as well as seeking to open new and sustainable fronts in Africa.
The researcher specializing in international relations stressed that Egypt must deter Ethiopian intransigence through diplomatic escalation and the political and economic blockade of Addis Ababa through the African Union, which Egypt is currently moving towards, stressing that the dilemma is not limited to the Renaissance Dam only; In the event that Egypt bears the consequences of the second filling without coordination with Ethiopia; It would have opened the door wide for subsequent steps that upstream countries, such as Ethiopia, might take, exposing Cairo's water security to unwelcome risks.
Zuhair believes that the Ethiopian side has plans that go beyond the Renaissance Dam; If implemented, the downstream country will be at risk. What confirms that there is no choice but to deter Ethiopian intransigence.
Tarek Fahmy, Professor of International Relations at the Faculty of Economics and Political Science at Cairo University, believes that Egypt is taking several paths, foremost of which is seeking to transfer the file to the Security Council, despite the complications related to fulfilling the necessary conditions for the procedure. It is not possible to go to the Security Council until after the African Union acknowledged the failure of the negotiations.
Fahmy suggested that Egypt is about to make tangible progress on the dam file, especially after obtaining the support and backing of the League of Arab States and conducting a number of bilateral and multilateral Arab and African meetings, in addition to relying on presidential diplomacy, which plays a prominent role in highlighting the Egyptian position and defending its legitimate rights, in addition to reliance on presidential diplomacy. to the movement of information and intelligence services.
The professor of international relations suggested that Egypt is on its way to making tangible progress on the dam, despite all the technical developments taking place in its construction. The fact that its right to the waters of the Blue Nile is based on well-established historical and legal foundations and stipulated in a number of international treaties and charters, stressing in the same context that Egypt will not accept partial solutions on the table at the present time, and it has also succeeded in thwarting the Ethiopian plan by causing a split in the Egyptian-Sudanese position. ; Pointing out that the second filling and commissioning operations will not prevent Egypt from achieving its rights in line with international conventions.
Fahmy concluded his statements to Al-Masry Al-Youm that the recent security and strategic indicators indicate that military options may precede diplomacy. What he excludes, Nasser Zuhair, a researcher in international relations, points out that the just solution lies in balanced coordination and cooperation between Egypt and Ethiopia, and that the latter has no choice but to balance rights and obligations and take into account the rights of Egypt and Sudan.
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- almasryalyoum.com